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      Gavyn Davies

      Macro-economics Commentator

      Gavyn Davies is chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Active Partners and Anthos Capital. He was the head of the global economics department at Goldman Sachs from 1987-2001 and chairman of the BBC from 2001-2004. He has also served as an economic policy adviser in No 10 Downing Street, and an external adviser to the British Treasury. He is a visiting fellow at Balliol College, Oxford.

      From time-to-time Gavyn Davies, or investment management businesses he is associated with, may have beneficial interests in investments that are impacted by the macroeconomic or other indicators described herein.

      Readers are urged to seek professional advice before making any investments.

      • Sunday, 10 January, 2021
        Cryptocurrencies
        Bitcoin has ambitions for gold’s role

        After years of hostility to cryptocurrencies, central banks will permit them a limited role

        The total stock of gold is estimated to be worth about $17tn in today’s prices, while the latest market value of bitcoin is about $0.6tn
      • Sunday, 27 December, 2020
        Global Economy
        The response to secular stagnation will drive the markets post-Covid

        Much depends on how much Joe Biden boosts the fiscal stimulus as US president

      • Sunday, 13 December, 2020
        Global Economy
        As Covid optimism grows, investors seek to hedge against inflation risk

        The global reflation trade means a change of strategy on portfolio protection

        Economic forecasters have been scrambling since mid-year to upgrade their real GDP growth projections
      • Monday, 30 November, 2020
        Coronavirus economic impact
        The risks of the global Covid debt bridge

        Markets seem unconcerned that the pandemic has left borrowing at all-time highs

        Mario Draghi: effectively ended the euro crisis in 2012 by promising to do ‘whatever it takes’ as president of the European Central Bank
      • Sunday, 15 November, 2020
        Coronavirus
        Democracies that failed the Covid test will struggle on climate change

        Efforts to address both issues are hampered by externalities and behavioural biases

        Hong Kong: resistance to lockdowns made strict restrictions politically infeasible in most of Europe and the US, but worked well in Asia and the Pacific
      • Sunday, 1 November, 2020
        Coronavirus economic impact
        The future of fiscal policy without traditional constraints

        Covid response has shown inflation and interest rates no longer dictate limits on debt

      • Sunday, 18 October, 2020
        Japanese economy
        Japan’s Suga inherits an economy stabilised by Abenomics

        The country is no longer such an obvious outlier among its peers

        Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is set to put more emphasis on structural reforms for Japan’s economy than his predecessor  Shinzo Abe
      • Sunday, 4 October, 2020
        Global Economy
        Global goods sector drives economic recovery

        Markets are reflecting sectoral shifts in the world economy as services lag behind manufacturing

        There are signs that excess household savings are now being spent on cars and durable consumer items
      • Sunday, 20 September, 2020
        Global Economy
        Expect long-term economic scarring from Covid-19

        Forecasts for GDP growth look optimistic, but the risks of permanent losses are worrying

        Tokyo. Economists predict Japan will be the only major economy that fails to recover all its lost ground by 2022
      • Sunday, 13 September, 2020
        Bank of England
        The Bank of England’s message on monetary financing needs clarity

        The central bank’s gilt purchases have been justified but could pose long-term risks for financial stability

        Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, speaking at the Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium in August
      • Sunday, 6 September, 2020
        US inflation
        The Fed risks higher inflation to boost jobs

        The US central bank’s new monetary framework takes policy back to the 1960s?

        In the early 1980s, Paul Volcker broke the back of double-digit inflation but at the expense of increasing unemployment
      • Sunday, 2 August, 2020
        Global economic recovery
        The anatomy of a very brief bear market

        Dramatic changes in the equity risk premium may have caused US stock market volatility

      • Sunday, 19 July, 2020
        Coronavirus economic impact
        US Covid-19 surge could trigger a double-dip recession

        Markets are ignoring the possibility that severe lockdowns may be needed in many states

        President Donald Trump and Anthony Fauci at the White House in April. The US policy response so far has been muted
      • Sunday, 12 July, 2020
        Global Economy
        Central banks expand their role to address the crisis

        Far from being impotent, they have again been crucial actors in the pandemic

      • Sunday, 5 July, 2020
        US employment
        Big data suggests a difficult recovery in US jobs market

        Private sources paint a detailed and worrying picture of the labour market after the Covid-19 shock

        People line up at Kentucky Career Center in June. Governments should spend money to protect low-income households, especially the newly unemployed
      • Sunday, 28 June, 2020
        Global Economy
        The safe-asset shortage after Covid-19

        Demand has outstripped supply since 2009 but the latest crisis may help to redress the balance

        A Lehman Brothers employee leaving the bank in New York in 2008 as it collapsed in the financial crash
      • Sunday, 21 June, 2020
        Global Economy
        Will public debt be a problem when the Covid-19 crisis is over?

        There is unanimity about macroeconomic policy for now, but not about exit strategy

        Once recovery takes hold, macroeconomists who agree that massive public debt is the right path are likely to divide again along their usual lines
      • Sunday, 7 June, 2020
        Global Economy
        Managing Covid debt mountains is a key task for the next decade

        Treasury bond issuance and central bank QE must work in tandem for economic recovery

        Tug of war, two businessman pulling a rope in opposite directions over defocused background with copy space
      • Sunday, 31 May, 2020
        Global Economy
        The effects of Covid-19 could deepen secular stagnation

        Monetary policy as we know it has become redundant. Central banks’ golden era is probably over

        A man under a colorful umbrella walks by an electronic stock board of a securities firm in Tokyo showing Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 that dropped more than 495 points to 16,105,56 Monday, June 13, 2016. Asian shares slipped Monday amid uncertainty over what the U.S. Federal Reserve might do on interest rates and Britain's status on the European Union. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)
      • Saturday, 23 May, 2020
        Global Economy
        Penny-pinching consumers could spell trouble for recovery

        US savings rates are pushing towards record highs

        A cyclist rides past shops temporarily closed in the French Quarter neighborhood of New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S., on Saturday, May 16, 2020. Louisiana entered its phase 1 of reopening on Friday after Governor John Bel Edwards loosened restrictions on certain business in the state. Photographer: Bryan Tarnowski/Bloomberg
      • Sunday, 17 May, 2020
        Global Economy
        Why the US jobless surge is worse than in Europe

        America’s emergency aid supports those made unemployed instead of preventing lay-offs

        Mandatory Credit: Photo by ETIENNE LAURENT/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock (10646053s) Two women wearing face masks cycle past closed retail shops by the beach as Los Angeles County beaches reopen today amid the coronavirus pandemic in Venice, California, USA, 13 May 2020. Beaches reopen in Los Angeles County, Venice, USA - 13 May 2020
      • Sunday, 3 May, 2020
        Global Economy
        After lockdowns, economic sunlight or a long hard slog?

        Equities imply that economic activity will swiftly return to previous peaks?

        This photo taken on April 29, 2020 shows an employee working at a textile factory in Handan in China's northern Hebei province. - Chinese factory activity continued to expand in April, data showed on April 30, but analysts warned that the outlook remained clouded by battered overseas demand as the rest of the world struggles to overcome the coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by STR / AFP) / China OUT (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)
      • Tuesday, 28 April, 2020
        News in-depthFT Alphaville
        Inflation figures are about to get fuzzier

        Official data will show prices falling drastically but might not be a fair reflection of what’s really going on.

      • Sunday, 26 April, 2020
        Global Economy
        The deflation threat from the virus will be long lasting

        Supply lockdowns could cause bigger declines in global demand, with falling prices?

        The 1930s' British policy debate around inflation could have echoes today
      • Sunday, 19 April, 2020
        Global Economy
        The SDR is an idea whose time has come

        An issue of new special drawing rights would help the world economy, if done correctly

        British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, delivers the results of the G20 Summit to journalists at the Excel centre in East London 2009 .
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